Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front will pass across the area this afternoon, resulting in scattered showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms. High pressure will build in behind the front, resulting in dry conditions through much of the workweek. The next chance for rain looks to be toward the weekend, depending on the track of Ian.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Convection dissipating with the loss of daytime heating for the most part, but upper-level energy associated with the deepening trough across the Great Lakes is still supporting some lingering activity for a few more hours, but all convection should be gone by 04Z. The main question overnight is the potential for fog development. Given the late day rain throughout the area, fog potential seems a bit greater than expected earlier, but widespread fog is not expected. Will need to monitor T/Td spreads over the next few hours to gage the potential for fog development overnight. Winds are not expected to increase significantly until after daybreak, thus increasing the potential for fog development late tonight/early Monday. So far temperatures and dewpoints are on track. Adjustments were made to pops to reflect current trends downward to less than 15% by 06Z, with early focus on northwest NC and far southwest VA where activity is currently focused.

As of 1215 PM EDT Sunday...

Watching for stronger storms with gusty winds this afternoon, then drying out...

12z RNK sounding shows a decent west flow at 8h-7h level causing drying lee of the mountains. Sounding also shows increase in the low level moisture but dry in the 7h-5h layer. PWATS have increased to 0.81 inches which is close to normal.

Storms are developing where MLCAPES are 500 or greater J/kg across southern WV/far SW VA. Still looking at potential for gusty showers/storms given the environment, especially in the mountains and north of U.S. 460. We've had some clearing ahead of this developing line which should maintain it further east, but still expect low topped convection.

Timing of storms arriving is early afternoon mountains to after 2pm in the piedmont. Front should push east of the piedmont this evening so most showers will be ending, though upper trough axis and upslope may keep showers lingering in the west.

Overall trend is for dry and cool after midnight as winds lower, but stay mixed enough to prevent much fog, except possibly near the river valleys of southeast WV.

Secondary shortwave moves across Monday although moisture appears limited. Cannot rule some lingering upslope clouds over the mountains of WV but appears most will be sunny. Winds will be gusty at times 15-25 mph but wind energy remains well below advisory levels.

Wind tonight will limit overnight low temperatures into the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Highs with sunshine for most and downsloping winds will warm into the 70s east of the mountains with 60s west of Blue Ridge, except some lower 70s across the I-81 corridor.

Forecast confidence is above average, except for coverage of storms this afternoon/evening as will likely be scattered.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday...

Confidence is high for dry weather and below normal temperatures.

A broad upper level trough will hover over the Great Lakes during Monday night through Wednesday. Winds should still remain rather breezy for Tuesday before slowly fading by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s for most locations at night, and a few spots may even see mid to upper 30s. Although the weather stays quiet with below normal temperatures for late September during this forecast period, clouds should begin to increase from the south by Wednesday night as a foreshadowing of what may come later in the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday...

Confidence is moderate for the potential of rain later in the week depending on the track of Ian.

Clouds will steadily increase on Thursday as Ian, which is currently a tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea, heads northward across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches western Florida. While the models still depict significant uncertainty, it appears that tropical moisture may spread northward toward the Mid Atlantic by Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure over the New England states will wedge southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains to potentially set up a cloudy, cool, and wet weekend. It is still way too early to determine rainfall amounts or coverage until the models obtain a far better grasp of where the remnant center of Ian will traverse after landfall.

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