Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Widespread rain will spread across the area today as a cold front approaches the region and a low pressure system crosses the southeast United States. Periods of rain will continue for much of the week, with a high probability of precipitation on Tuesday through Thursday. Any threat of winter precipitation is limited.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM EST Sunday...

...Rain continued to spread east...

Eastern edge of shield of rain had advanced into Buckingham and Charlotte Counties. Based on current trends in the HRRR guidance and upstream radar expecting solid coverage of rain through 18Z/1PM. Only a handful of observation sites still at freezing and these were slowly warming. Slightly lowered hourly temperatures for the afternoon.

As of 610 AM EST Sunday...

Adjusted morning PoPs and timing as rain is on our southwest doorstep (Mountains Empire to Richlands). Also, warm air advecting in as rain approaches has brought ridge temperatures up a few degrees this morning.

As of 223 AM EST Sunday...

Rain will overrun the western edge of high pressure creating an insitu wedge in the area today. This shallow wedge will erode overnight. Until then, isentropic lift will help produce rain for much of the day today. Up to half of an inch of rain is possible. Low clouds and/or fog will follow the rain and remain in place until winds become westerly after midnight.

There is a wave of low pressure that will track across the Deep South today, then over the Carolinas tonight. This wave may bring rain back into the area late tonight. However, not all models agree on the track of this wave. Some have it moving further north, some more to the south. If this wave maintains a track across the Carolinas, the highest confidence in rain late tonight will be along and south of the NC/VA border. Worst case scenario, up to a quarter of an inch of rain may fall in northwestern North Carolina and Southside Virginia.

Cool temperatures expected today with reading generally in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Temperatures trending cooler early this week.

As a low pressure system exists the southeast U.S. coast on Monday, precipitation will end early for most areas. The exception will be across the western slopes upslope showers remain behind the passage of a frontal system associated with the passing of an upper level shortwave across the northern Great Lakes.

Leaned toward the warmer NBM guidance for highs Monday, especially east of the Piedmont in advance of the cold front as clearing skies are expected. There is low confidence on the extent of clearing, so the temperature forecast in the west in the wake of the the next cold front is also low.

As this front settles to our south Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure builds across the eastern Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Areas of low pressure tracking across the front to our south will help generate periods of precipitation during this period with the deterministic models in good agreement for rain returning Tuesday with perhaps a short break Tuesday evening before precipitation returns Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Temperatures during this period will continue to cool as high pressure noses into the eastern Ohio Valley by Wednesday, so some light wintry precipitation in possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There is still some uncertainty with the northern extent of the precipitation.

Temperatures were lowered slight from the previous forecast, especially for Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Confidence continues to increase for precipitation chances rain chances Thursday...

The approach of a southern stream system, which the medium range models are in fair agreement with its timing and intensity will help generate UVM across the area, especially on Thursday allowing widespread precipitation to develop, especially in the southern portion of the forecast area closest to the expected location of the surface boundary. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails hints at abnormally high PWAT values entering NW NC by Thursday which correlates with the marginal risk WPC excessive rainfall forecast approaching this area on Thursday.

After this system exits (which the deterministic models are in poor agreement) a wedge of high pressure builds into the area late Friday and Saturday, resulting in cooler temperatures by the weekend with dry conditions Saturday.

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