Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon into tonight across NC, but most will stay dry. Temperatures turn warmer each day into Saturday, but a backdoor cold front should arrive during late Saturday into Sunday with another chance of rain with cooler temperatures.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
Mild weather continues.
High pressure over the Northeast will control our weather tonight into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure off in the atlantic ocean will weaken and fill. The HRRR, RAP and HiRESW-ARW support the mention of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon into this evening mainly in the east. Any convection will fade by sunset with the loss of solar heating. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s in the deeper valleys of the mountains to around 60 degrees in the Piedmont where clouds may linger. The high center will keep Friday on the dry side with warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will warm the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid and upper 80s in the Piedmont.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is increasing for showers and thunderstorms from a backdoor cold front during late Saturday.
A large upper level ridge over the central Plains will block any weather features arriving from the west throughout the weekend. However, the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast should reside in a persistent troughing pattern. A deep upper level low will dive southwestward from eastern Canada during Friday night into Saturday. While conditions should remain quiet on Friday night, showers and thunderstorms will develop along a backdoor cold front associated with this upper level low by Saturday. This convection could reach central Virginia during the afternoon and spread southwestward to reach northwest North Carolina, southeast West Virginia, and southwest Virginia towards Saturday evening.
Due to compressional warming, temperatures should soar into the 80s for most locations ahead of this approaching frontal boundary on Saturday. However, this added warmth will fuel unstable conditions with CAPE climbing up to 1,500 J/kg. Model soundings indicate a potential gusty wind threat with any storms that become strong if they arrive quickly enough before the loss of daytime heating. Any convective activity should taper to showers by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will turn notably cooler for the remainder of the weekend, especially east of the Blue Ridge. The cold front should stall across North Carolina on Sunday before moving eastward towards the coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop again on Sunday afternoon, but coverage of any convection should be notably less compared to Saturday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is moderate for daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms during early next week.
With a large upper level ridge across the central Plains stretching northwards into Canada that will block anything arriving from the west, the Mid Atlantic will continue to have a deep upper level low influencing the weather pattern through early next week as it spins over the New England states. Several shortwave troughs spiraling around the upper level low will swing over the Appalachian Mountains to promote lift and instability to spark daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday. The upper level low may begin to depart eastward by Wednesday night into Thursday, which will allow drier air from the west to arrive. Temperatures will continue to hover near normal values for early June, so no considerable heat is forthcoming until the upper level low completely exits later in the week.