Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across southwestern Virginia and northern North Carolina will diminish this evening as a cold front moves south. Cooler and drier air arrives in the area by Friday morning behind a secondary front. After a dry couple of days, low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the area Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

...Isolated Thunderstorms Across the Piedmont This Evening...then Mainly Dry Weather for Friday/Saturday...

A marked moisture discontinuity was noted this evening across the Piedmont where an isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm has developed during the past hour or so just east of LYH. The storm has developed along a discontinuity/moisture convergence boundary that extends just east of LYH to just east of DAN. To the east of this line dewpoints are in the 70s yet while they have dropped into the 50s and 60s to the west. The NAMNEST takes this current thunderstorm and advects it/develops it southwest toward DAN through 02Z, then it dissipates along/near the NC/VA border in the Caswell, NC area by 04Z. Therefore, pops have been adjusted upward into the low chance range for areas just east of a LYH-DAN line for the next few hours.

Meanwhile, a secondary/cooler/drier front was moving south from northern WV/MD. This front will reach the I-64 corridor and the northern part of the CWA around 13Z or so Friday morning. Precipitation with the front is very doubtful as it moves into a drying air mass. However, abundant mid-level moisture and dewpoints hovering near 60 may support a few light rain showers or sprinkles into the morning hours. Considerable clouds, especially in typical upslope areas area also expected early Friday, but by late morning/early afternoon conditions should become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Friday afternoon should eventually unfold as one of the nicest days we have had in some time with low humidity, a pleasant northerly breeze, and temperatures only in the 70s for most areas, 60s in the mountains and perhaps an 80 or two in the Piedmont. This will evolve into the coolest night in some time going into Saturday morning with lows in the 50s.

As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

A few more storms this afternoon, then a dry reprieve for Friday and Saturday...

A cold front continued to push through the forecast area this afternoon, and was generally south of I-81. The convection was developing along the front and moving into an area which has had a lot of cloud cover today. However, there have been some breaks in the clouds, so there is some decent instability in the area. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and the occasional stronger wind gust will be possible until storms move south and/or dissipate.

A secondary front will push south through the area by Friday morning. Little to no precipitation is expected along the secondary front. This will usher in a reinforcement of cooler and drier air. Behind the fronts, lower dew points will arrive making for a refreshing change from the last few weeks. Clouds will clear out Friday from north to south behind the secondary front, with just some passing cirrus in the afternoon. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s in the mountains, and the low 80s for the Piedmont.

Stratus and patchy fog is possible tonight, especially where it's rained. PWATs finally drop below an inch Friday with the passage of the secondary cold front.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Drier and cooler heading into the start of the weekend with a return of showers and storm Sunday afternoon and evening.

A ridge of high pressure will continue build into the region the first half of the weekend. This feature will bring drier air and no precipitation Friday night through Saturday night. Given bodies of water will still be likely warmer than the drier and cooler air that will be over them during the late night and early morning hours, radiation fog is a possibility.

By Sunday, the ridge axis is expected to be east of the region and a shortwave will be approaching from the northwest. This transition will help allow for an increasing potential for showers and storms Sunday and Sunday night.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to average a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front crosses the area on Monday, followed by daily diurnal showers/storms as we remain within the axis of an upper level trough.

On Monday, the shortwave trough is expected to cross the region along with its associated surface cold front. Showers and storms are expected to be more than diurnal in nature thanks to this feature and clear the region Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday, an upper low is expected to deepen and close off over the St. Lawrence Seaway region. Models differ on the specific location, but the general trend for our region will have us under some degree of upper level troughiness, with the potential for upstream shortwave troughs to cross the region. Currently, confidence on the timing on any of the shortwave troughs is low, but there is much better confidence on general diurnal type showers and storms each day.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to average a few degrees below normal.

Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate.

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