Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure and front pushes eastward with lingering moisture and second disturbance allowing for isolated to scattered showers tonight in north and west. High pressure builds in for first part of work week before another disturbance and cold front impacts us Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another ridge of high pressure allows for a dry end to the work week and a possible weak disturbance and front could increase some precipitation chances going into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 610 PM EST Sunday...

Update was mainly done to adjust dew points across the mountains this evening. Dew points along ridges above 3500 ft are in the mid to upper 30s. As mixing increases this evening, this drier air will lower dewpoints from the 40s to 30s across the mountains and from the 50s to 40s east of the Blue Ridge.

As of 140 PM EST Sunday...

Heaviest rain exiting, some isolated to scattered overnight showers in the north and west. Breezy this afternoon into Monday...

Upper cutoff low continues to track NEWD and heavier precip has quickly exited the eastern CWA ahead of the occluded sfc front. Enhanced gradient winds should soon kick in soon out of the SW, shifting west overnight then NW for Monday. Upslope flow, lingering wrap-around moisture and a secondary weak upper disturbance will allow for mainly some isolated to scattered shower development in the northern and western tier of the CWA tonight into early Monday. Ridge of high pressure builds in for Monday and other than some possible continued cloud coverage in the mountains from upslope/cold advection stratocu, conditions should be mainly dry and the NW winds should becoming more lax by the afternoon.

Temps much cooler for Monday with highs limited to the 40s for much of the mountains, while the downsloping into the piedmont will allow for decently higher temps mainly in the upper 50s to near 60.

Forecast confidence is high.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 146 PM EST Sunday...

Dry into Tuesday, then showers and windy Wednesday.

High pressure builds over the region Monday night into Tuesday. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s in the piedmont. The high center continues to move east Tuesday. High temperatures will vary from the lower 40s in the northwest mountains to around 60 degrees in the Piedmont. Moisture increased Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from the west. A few showers could make it into the far western portions of the area late Tuesday night, but bulk of the rainfall comes Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be from the mid 30s in the west to the lower 40s in the east.

A deepening surface low will track from the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. The trailing cold front approaches Wednesday and move east into the Mid-Atlantic region into Wednesday night. This front will generate widespread showers for our area. High temperatures Wednesday will be cooler with readings from the lower 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont. It will turn colder Wednesday night with lows from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Moderate confidence in the Short Term Forecast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 146 PM EST Sunday...

Cooler Thursday, then temperatures moderating into the Weekend.

Behind the cold front Thursday,strong gusty northwest winds are possible because the sharp pressure rises and strong cold air advection.

Pressure gradient quickly relaxes Thursday night as high pressure builds in overhead. The high center remains across the region into Saturday. Another cold front approaches Sunday. Cooler Thursday, temperatures moderating into the weekend.

Low to moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast.

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