Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front over the Ohio Valley will move slowly southeast through the weekend before stalling along the Virginia/North Carolina border late Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening for the next several days. Temperatures will be typical of summer.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1040 PM EDT Friday...

Convection has finally weakened to just a few light showers. Had several stronger to severe storms earlier with trees down around the Bluefield VA area, Huffman VA, and White Sulphur Springs, WV with minor flooding in Bluefield.

Overnight expect a mix of clouds and some clearer skies. Fog will be an issue at least in the mountains where it rained, but more clouds moving across may limit the coverage as well.

Staying muggy with dewpoints in the 60s.

Previous discussion from early this evening...

Have adjusted pops to have higher pops early this evening along outflow and best low level moisture convergence zone from southeast WV to the Alleghany Highlands with isolated pulse showers/storms to the southeast, with limited or no coverage in the piedmont. As we head through the evening most activity ends, but could see lingering showers at least til midnight across southeast WV and the Alleghanys closer to the convergence zone per latest mesoscale model trends.

Anticipate some thicker high clouds this evening then a mix of clouds and stars overnight, leading to some fog where it rained.

Previous discussion...

High confidence of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening.

Coverage of thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening with the storms dissipating before midnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight in locations that have rain this afternoon and evening.

On Saturday there will be more mid and high clouds in the morning depending on the amount of the thunderstorms along the upstream front. However, there will still be enough heating and instability to support thunderstorms in the afternoon. As the cold front get closer and there is more low level convergence, the coverage of storms will increase. The probability of precipitation will be higher in most locations on Saturday than on Friday.

Little change in the air mass is expected. Surface dew points tonight and Saturday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This will again limit the drop in temperature tonight. NBM should have a good handle on temperatures for both lows tonight and highs on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Storm chances increase for the Independence Day weekend as front slowly sags south and stalls across the region...

A cold front, caught in zonal flow, will slowly move across the area Saturday night. High pressure will also move east across the Ohio Valley Saturday night and help push the front through the area. This front should either stall across northern or central North Carolina by Sunday morning.

Scattered convection is expected to enter the area late Saturday afternoon and move across the area overnight. Despite convection moving in during non-peaking hours, there remains enough instability during the evening for strong to severe storms to maintain themselves, especially across the central piedmont of Virginia. Storms should weaken and fade by 4 AM. On Sunday, most of the stronger storms will generate along the boundary and moreso over North Carolina. However, lingering instabilities and low level convergence can help pop a few strong storms along the east slopes of the Blue Ridge and into the Virginia southern foothills Sunday afternoon. We are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening with the main threat being damaging winds. Heavy rain from slow-moving storms may also lead to localize flooding.

Surface high pressure tracks over New England Sunday night to further push the front southward into South Carolina. High pressure moves off the coast Monday allowing the winds to become easterly. A few orographical showers may develop across the mountains in the afternoon. Since flow aloft is westerly, some of these showers may drift east of the Blue Ridge and fade during the evening. For a vast majority of the area, Independence Day festivities are a go.

With rain and extensive cloud cover expected Sunday and Monday, high temperatures will run a few degrees cooler than normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Friday...

Typical summer pattern looks to continue with increased humidity and daily storm chances for much of next week...

An upper level ridge over the southern plains drifts east through the period. The outer rings of this ridge will sit over the Ohio Valley and into our region. Strong fast-moving disturbances may form in the upper Mississippi Valley and track towards the area. Some models have a disturbance moving through each afternoon, some every other day. If these disturbances do not move into the area, then diurnal pulse showers and thunderstorms will pepper the area each afternoon.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through the period.

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